The Japanese Dominant Party System and Nuclear Disarmament in the Korean Peninsula

Since I'm not cool enough to talk about the inner circles of Kentucky Politics, I thought I would introduce a theory derived by a few people in my POLS 202 class.

After the United States defeated Japan in World War II, we pretty much wrote their constitution. In this constitution, the nation's national defense is pretty much limited to a ragtag group to basically serve as the equivalent of National Guardsmen. The constitution was also established such that a 2/3 majority would be required to amend it.

Another observation is that since Japan has had free and fair elections, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP; a right-of-center party) has controlled the Diet (parliament) for all but 10 months. Also, even though the LDP controls the Diet, they frequently form coalitions with smaller parties for various reasons. They are currently in coalition with New Komeito, a moderate party with roots in Buddhist/Shinto tradition.

Now, for those unfamiliar with the policymaking process in Japan, the bloated bureaucracy actually composes the majority of legislation. The LDP is involved in an iron triangle that I shall attempt to explain in figure 1.

Most Japanese people have a bad taste in their mouths from the power of the bureaucracy. So, a few years ago a rising member of the LDP, Junichiro Koizumi began gaining recognition on his platform supporting bureaucratic reform. Seeing as how a member of the only party that ever wins actually endorsed a policy with widespread public support, he quickly became one of the post popular politicians in Japanese history. He is now the Prime Minister.

Earlier this year, Koizumi proposed legislation to privatize Japan Post, a state-run bureaucracy that serves the purpose of Treasury, Postal Service, Federal Reserve, and FDIC. Oh, and it is the biggest bank in the 2nd largest economy in the world. Anyway, some members of the LDP voted against the plan. Koizumi promptly kicked them out of the party and called for new elections. The LDP had a sweeping victory. Considering their coalition with New Komeito, the LDP/NK voting bloc had (for the first time in Japanese history) a 2/3 majority in the House of Representatives (lower, most important house in Diet). This brings us back to the original discussion on the constitution and the Japanese military.

Although many Japanese see little need for their own military (they have us for free), it is quite possible that Japan could decide to remilitarize. Meanwhile, it is obvious to any student of International Politics that China is the lifeblood of North Korea. An example of North Korea's dire circumstances: according to a recent documentary, as recently as 1999, starving North Koreans sometimes ate their own children to stay alive.

Without food and fuel from China, North Korea would totally collapse. Now, [these are the words of my Comparitive Politics Professor] nothing scares the shit out of China more than a remilitarized Japan. Thus, China has been backing off from its bold support of the North Korean regime and is likely to broker a deal that, more or less breaks down something like this:
1.) North Korea must cease nuclear development or lose support from China.
2.) Japan, in the least, avoids building nuclear weapons so long as North Korea is kept in check.
3.) Sweet.